diff --git a/cmd/lotus-shed/finality.go b/cmd/lotus-shed/finality.go
new file mode 100644
index 00000000000..37672096b85
--- /dev/null
+++ b/cmd/lotus-shed/finality.go
@@ -0,0 +1,228 @@
+package main
+
+import (
+	"bufio"
+	"fmt"
+	"math"
+	"os"
+	"strconv"
+
+	skellampmf "github.com/rvagg/go-skellam-pmf"
+	"github.com/urfave/cli/v2"
+	"golang.org/x/exp/constraints"
+
+	"github.com/filecoin-project/lotus/build"
+)
+
+var finalityCmd = &cli.Command{
+	Name:        "finality-calculator",
+	Description: "Calculate the finality probability of at a tipset",
+	Flags: []cli.Flag{
+		&cli.StringFlag{
+			Name:  "repo",
+			Value: "~/.lotus",
+		},
+		&cli.StringFlag{
+			Name: "input",
+		},
+		&cli.IntFlag{
+			Name:  "target",
+			Usage: "target epoch for which finality is calculated",
+		},
+	},
+	ArgsUsage: "[inputFile]",
+	Action: func(cctx *cli.Context) error {
+		input := cctx.Args().Get(0)
+		file, err := os.Open(input)
+		if err != nil {
+			return err
+		}
+		defer func() { _ = file.Close() }()
+
+		var chain []int
+		scanner := bufio.NewScanner(file)
+		for scanner.Scan() {
+			num, err := strconv.Atoi(scanner.Text())
+			if err != nil {
+				return err
+			}
+			chain = append(chain, num)
+		}
+
+		if err := scanner.Err(); err != nil {
+			return err
+		}
+
+		blocksPerEpoch := 5.0          // Expected number of blocks per epoch
+		byzantineFraction := 0.3       // Upper bound on the fraction of malicious nodes in the network
+		currentEpoch := len(chain) - 1 // Current epoch (end of history)
+		// targetEpoch := currentEpoch - 30 // Target epoch for which finality is calculated
+		targetEpoch := cctx.Int("target")
+
+		finality := FinalityCalcValidator(chain, blocksPerEpoch, byzantineFraction, currentEpoch, targetEpoch)
+
+		_, _ = fmt.Fprintf(cctx.App.Writer, "Finality=%v @ %d for chain len=%d\n", finality, targetEpoch, currentEpoch)
+
+		return nil
+	},
+}
+
+// FinalityCalcValidator computes the probability that a previous blockchain tipset gets replaced.
+//
+// Based on https://github.com/consensus-shipyard/ec-finality-calculator
+func FinalityCalcValidator(chain []int, blocksPerEpoch float64, byzantineFraction float64, currentEpoch int, targetEpoch int) float64 {
+	// Threshold at which the probability of an event is considered negligible
+	const negligibleThreshold = 1e-25
+
+	maxKL := 400                                                // Max k for which to calculate Pr(L=k)
+	maxKB := (currentEpoch - targetEpoch) * int(blocksPerEpoch) // Max k for which to calculate Pr(B=k)
+	maxKM := 400                                                // Max k for which to calculate Pr(M=k)
+	maxIM := 100                                                // Maximum number of epochs for the calculation (after which the pr become negligible)
+
+	rateMaliciousBlocks := blocksPerEpoch * byzantineFraction // upper bound
+	rateHonestBlocks := blocksPerEpoch - rateMaliciousBlocks  // lower bound
+
+	// Compute L
+	prL := make([]float64, maxKL+1)
+
+	for k := 0; k <= maxKL; k++ {
+		sumExpectedAdversarialBlocksI := 0.0
+		sumChainBlocksI := 0
+
+		for i := targetEpoch; i > currentEpoch-int(build.Finality); i-- {
+			sumExpectedAdversarialBlocksI += rateMaliciousBlocks
+			sumChainBlocksI += chain[i-1]
+			// Poisson(k=k, lambda=sum(f*e))
+			prLi := poissonProb(sumExpectedAdversarialBlocksI, float64(k+sumChainBlocksI))
+			prL[k] = math.Max(prL[k], prLi)
+
+		}
+		if k > 1 && prL[k] < negligibleThreshold && prL[k] < prL[k-1] {
+			maxKL = k
+			prL = prL[:k+1]
+			break
+		}
+	}
+
+	// As the adversarial lead is never negative, the missing probability is added to k=0
+	prL[0] += 1 - sum(prL)
+
+	// Compute B
+	prB := make([]float64, maxKB+1)
+
+	// Calculate Pr(B=k) for each value of k
+	for k := 0; k <= maxKB; k++ {
+		prB[k] = poissonProb(float64(currentEpoch-targetEpoch)*rateMaliciousBlocks, float64(k))
+
+		// Break if prB[k] becomes negligible
+		if k > 1 && prB[k] < negligibleThreshold && prB[k] < prB[k-1] {
+			maxKB = k
+			prB = prB[:k+1]
+			break
+		}
+	}
+
+	// Compute M
+	prHgt0 := 1 - poissonProb(rateHonestBlocks, 0)
+
+	expZ := 0.0
+	for k := 0; k < int(4*blocksPerEpoch); k++ {
+		pmf := poissonProb(rateMaliciousBlocks, float64(k))
+		expZ += ((rateHonestBlocks + float64(k)) / math.Pow(2, float64(k))) * pmf
+	}
+
+	ratePublicChain := prHgt0 * expZ
+
+	prM := make([]float64, maxKM+1)
+	for k := 0; k <= maxKM; k++ {
+		for i := maxIM; i > 0; i-- {
+			probMI := skellampmf.SkellamPMF(k, float64(i)*rateMaliciousBlocks, float64(i)*ratePublicChain)
+
+			// Break if probMI becomes negligible
+			if probMI < negligibleThreshold && probMI < prM[k] {
+				break
+			}
+			prM[k] = math.Max(prM[k], probMI)
+		}
+
+		// Break if prM[k] becomes negligible
+		if k > 1 && prM[k] < negligibleThreshold && prM[k] < prM[k-1] {
+			maxKM = k
+			prM = prM[:k+1]
+			break
+		}
+	}
+
+	prM[0] += 1 - sum(prM)
+
+	// Compute error probability upper bound
+	cumsumL := cumsum(prL)
+	cumsumB := cumsum(prB)
+	cumsumM := cumsum(prM)
+
+	k := sum(chain[targetEpoch:currentEpoch])
+
+	sumLgeK := cumsumL[len(cumsumL)-1]
+	if k > 0 {
+		sumLgeK -= cumsumL[min(k-1, maxKL)]
+	}
+
+	doubleSum := 0.0
+
+	for l := 0; l < k; l++ {
+		sumBgeKminL := cumsumB[len(cumsumB)-1]
+		if k-l-1 > 0 {
+			sumBgeKminL -= cumsumB[min(k-l-1, maxKB)]
+		}
+		doubleSum += prL[min(l, maxKL)] * sumBgeKminL
+
+		for b := 0; b < k-l; b++ {
+			sumMgeKminLminB := cumsumM[len(cumsumM)-1]
+			if k-l-b-1 > 0 {
+				sumMgeKminLminB -= cumsumM[min(k-l-b-1, maxKM)]
+			}
+			doubleSum += prL[min(l, maxKL)] * prB[min(b, maxKB)] * sumMgeKminLminB
+		}
+	}
+
+	prError := sumLgeK + doubleSum
+
+	return math.Min(prError, 1.0)
+}
+
+func poissonProb(lambda float64, x float64) float64 {
+	return math.Exp(poissonLogProb(lambda, x))
+}
+
+func poissonLogProb(lambda float64, x float64) float64 {
+	if x < 0 || math.Floor(x) != x {
+		return math.Inf(-1)
+	}
+	lg, _ := math.Lgamma(math.Floor(x) + 1)
+	return x*math.Log(lambda) - lambda - lg
+}
+
+func sum[T constraints.Integer | constraints.Float](s []T) T {
+	var total T
+	for _, v := range s {
+		total += v
+	}
+	return total
+}
+
+func cumsum(arr []float64) []float64 {
+	cumsums := make([]float64, len(arr))
+	cumSum := 0.0
+	for i, value := range arr {
+		cumSum += value
+		cumsums[i] = cumSum
+	}
+	return cumsums
+}
+
+func min(a, b int) int {
+	if a < b {
+		return a
+	}
+	return b
+}
diff --git a/cmd/lotus-shed/main.go b/cmd/lotus-shed/main.go
index 911da346e97..8244e9d2db1 100644
--- a/cmd/lotus-shed/main.go
+++ b/cmd/lotus-shed/main.go
@@ -91,6 +91,7 @@ func main() {
 		mismatchesCmd,
 		blockCmd,
 		adlCmd,
+		finalityCmd,
 	}
 
 	app := &cli.App{
diff --git a/go.mod b/go.mod
index 08d462377d7..8456002af5b 100644
--- a/go.mod
+++ b/go.mod
@@ -126,6 +126,7 @@ require (
 	github.com/puzpuzpuz/xsync/v2 v2.4.0
 	github.com/raulk/clock v1.1.0
 	github.com/raulk/go-watchdog v1.3.0
+	github.com/rvagg/go-skellam-pmf v0.0.1
 	github.com/samber/lo v1.39.0
 	github.com/stretchr/testify v1.9.0
 	github.com/syndtr/goleveldb v1.0.1-0.20210819022825-2ae1ddf74ef7
@@ -149,6 +150,7 @@ require (
 	go.uber.org/multierr v1.11.0
 	go.uber.org/zap v1.27.0
 	golang.org/x/crypto v0.23.0
+	golang.org/x/exp v0.0.0-20240506185415-9bf2ced13842
 	golang.org/x/net v0.25.0
 	golang.org/x/sync v0.7.0
 	golang.org/x/sys v0.20.0
@@ -320,7 +322,6 @@ require (
 	go.uber.org/dig v1.17.1 // indirect
 	go.uber.org/mock v0.4.0 // indirect
 	go4.org v0.0.0-20230225012048-214862532bf5 // indirect
-	golang.org/x/exp v0.0.0-20240506185415-9bf2ced13842 // indirect
 	golang.org/x/mod v0.17.0 // indirect
 	golang.org/x/text v0.15.0 // indirect
 	gonum.org/v1/gonum v0.15.0 // indirect
diff --git a/go.sum b/go.sum
index d1d53543052..5690e428f80 100644
--- a/go.sum
+++ b/go.sum
@@ -1178,6 +1178,8 @@ github.com/russross/blackfriday v1.5.2/go.mod h1:JO/DiYxRf+HjHt06OyowR9PTA263kcR
 github.com/russross/blackfriday/v2 v2.0.1/go.mod h1:+Rmxgy9KzJVeS9/2gXHxylqXiyQDYRxCVz55jmeOWTM=
 github.com/russross/blackfriday/v2 v2.1.0 h1:JIOH55/0cWyOuilr9/qlrm0BSXldqnqwMsf35Ld67mk=
 github.com/russross/blackfriday/v2 v2.1.0/go.mod h1:+Rmxgy9KzJVeS9/2gXHxylqXiyQDYRxCVz55jmeOWTM=
+github.com/rvagg/go-skellam-pmf v0.0.1 h1:li3G0jioT+8bRUseNP+h0WRVv/CI+9s2q1qwNvEE994=
+github.com/rvagg/go-skellam-pmf v0.0.1/go.mod h1:/xSBO272x+iW1BjHnPL6p2O7kCpVTh7QK9hZcXE/Kqk=
 github.com/rwcarlsen/goexif v0.0.0-20190401172101-9e8deecbddbd/go.mod h1:hPqNNc0+uJM6H+SuU8sEs5K5IQeKccPqeSjfgcKGgPk=
 github.com/samber/lo v1.39.0 h1:4gTz1wUhNYLhFSKl6O+8peW0v2F4BCY034GRpU9WnuA=
 github.com/samber/lo v1.39.0/go.mod h1:+m/ZKRl6ClXCE2Lgf3MsQlWfh4bn1bz6CXEOxnEXnEA=